We are accustomed of course to Japanese people being so obedient and civil, you might be inclined to question my thesis that Japan might well be confronting a threat of civil war. But consider the following:
1. There are a great many Japanese people who are struggling to make a living; to get ahead in this economy.
2. There is this nuclear program opposed by the public, launched by the government irrespective of public concerns.
3. There is the lying by the government about the dangers
4. There is the fact that people have no effective voice in government, and never had. It was all a delusional pretense. People did not think it through. They still don't.
5. There is a great deal of unrest around the world; most particularly in the Middle East
6. There are issues endless corruption in government
7. There is the spectre of a huge public sector debt of 220% of GDP, with plans for another spend on this earthquake funding of $US0.5 trillion. There is the problem of 20 years of economic stagnation.
8. There is the prospect of increasing hardship as the population comes to terms with fuel shortages, higher taxation.
We might asks - what could happen? Already many Japanese decide to take their lives. We might expect more suicide. Might we expect a charismatic leader to emerge given the political stalemate in the parliament. The parliament seems to be bogged down by corruption issues.
At some point people tend to break. People who have repressed their anxieties or frustrations are the worst. In Japan, it poses a systematic risk. Already many Japanese children decide to live and marry abroad. Might we expect another exodus? The Japanese have traditionally made a virtue of suffering. Is there any sign that that will finally break? I don't see it. I think they would need to be lead by some charismatic leader, and there is no sign. Having said that there might be a political campaign that I am not aware of. The Japanese are among the most organised people in the world; but most organisation is government-driven. Anyway, it is something to watch for. The tsunami might be another step towards chaos. I don't see any trigger for Japan to reach its tipping point. Perhaps one might emerge out of this crisis. Many a city mayor who is heralded for their courage and quick thinking who becomes a national hero.
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